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 Post subject: Dark Age history books
PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2006 5:33 pm 
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Sergeant
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Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 4:55 pm
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Location: Surrey BC Canda
Could anyone tell me which books deal with the Jihad and Dark Ages? Are there any novels yet? (I seem to recall seeing one).

From the latest Mech Assualt game, I am left to assume that Wolfs Dragoons was wiped out. Is that true? Has that been explored in any of the books yet?

Mark Charke

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2006 7:53 pm 
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Commanding General
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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
Could anyone tell me which books deal with the Jihad and Dark Ages? Are there any novels yet? (I seem to recall seeing one).
Dawn of the Jihad (DotJ) is a sourcebook that deals with the beginning of the Jihad.

Hotspots: 3070 fills in the Jihad timeline between DotJ and, well, 3070.

The mauling of the Dragoons is discussed in depth in Dawn of the Jihad; it has its own chapter(s).

There are multitudes of MWDA novels.

The Dragoons have not been wiped out; they are present in MWDA (3130s). However, they were pretty screwed up in the Jihad. Actually, the conflict happened just before the Jihad, in an action unrelated to the Jihad.

See, the Dragoons Squad formed a group (Allied Merc Command, AMC) in 3067 opposed to WoB expansion in the "Chaos March," where WoB was trying to bring enlightenment, peace, and happiness to the anarchic region. (Or, from the AMC perspective, WoB was trying to bring brutal oppression and a theocracy of toaster worship and thus needed to be stopped in the name of liberty, etc.)

[Interjection: WoB spends a lot of time spewing canned, unimaginative rants in DotJ - DotJ really missed an opportunity to bring some depth to WoB's side of the Jihad. However, from an in-character perspective, WoB's arguments against the Dragoons are some of its more intelligently delivered press releases in DotJ. Of course, WoB's behavior in the Jihad will completely undermined its position against the Dragoons.]

Anyway...WoB arranged for the many mercs on Outreach to wage a pretty brutal, surprise attack against the Dragoons, with features like detonating large, large truck (?) bombs in the Dragoons' Home Guard barracks.

Of course, many Dragoon regiments were deployed abroad on contracts and thus escaped destruction in this "merc rampage." The Dragoons figured WoB was responsible for the attack, so they gathered the surviving regiments and stampeded to Terra (actually, Mars). The Dragoons were defeated messily over Mars, but WoB went nuts over this counterattack and retaliated by dumping a load of nukes on Outreach.

Note the AMC-WoB conflict predates the Jihad by a few months; it is an outgrowth of WoB's attempt to form the Blake Protectorate rather than the "real" Jihad.

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2006 12:40 am 
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Major General
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Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2003 10:31 am
Posts: 776
Location: Toronto, Ontario
If you're interested in the Jihad (which is just starting to unfold), I highly recommend the Dawn of the Jihad and Hotspots 3070: Jihad. I'm a huge Wolf's Dragoons fan, so reading the first couple of Chapters of Dawn of the Jihad was like a punch in the gut... the Dragoons get hit HARD (and hit again in Hotspots). Kind of depressing, but it really got me into the story. Now, I want to see the Word of Blake burn for what they did to the Dragoons & Outreach - and a bunch of other places, I guess!

I agree with Cray regarding the Word of Blake press releases... most of them leave the Wobblies sounding slap-ass crazy, but the release dealing with the Dragoons actually creates more than a little doubt as to what Jaime Wolf's motives were in opposing their expansion into the Chaos March. It raises some good points and even created some doubt in my mind as to what the Wolf's motives were.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:24 am 
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Loki
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Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 8:00 pm
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Location: Minnesnowta
No doubts with me.

The Wobblies are crazed animals that need to be put out of their misery who are willing to say anything to make people not kill them.

They should be shot. Period. No questions asked.

Once they are gone, we can deal with other issues.

_________________
Medron Pryde - The Great and Terrible :blah:
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:45 am 
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General
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Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 8:00 pm
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Location: Austin, TX
No doubts here either, but I prefer a less subtle approach to my WOBlie killing. An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, and a nuclear annihilation attempt for a nuclear annihilation attempt.

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Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
---Confucius
In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity. ---Albert Einstein


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:35 am 
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Test Pilot
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Location: That flattop, up the well, overhead …
Don't trade nukes with a Wobble: People might not be able to tell you apart . . .

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"He closes his eyes and remembers the night splattered with brightness, the sudden flare of erupting fuel, the mad chase as, supersonic, he bobbed and weaved among the hills and valleys of the Ozarks, the laws on his tail, burning for home …"


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 9:43 am 
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General
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Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 8:00 pm
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Location: Austin, TX
Oh sure they will, I only toss the Nukes at WOBlies. The WOBlies toss the nukes at everyone and if you survive they herd you into a re-education camp. Such nice folks those Nazis, I mean WOBlies.

:wink:

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Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
---Confucius
In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity. ---Albert Einstein


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 Post subject: Well
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 4:20 pm 
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Sergeant
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Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 10:21 pm
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Ya drop one little nuke and sudenly everyone hates ya. At least we cleared the civilians outta Dehra Dun before blowing up one little repository 8)

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You will fight to the last soldier, and when you die, I will call upon your damned soul to rise and speak horrible curses at the enemy.
Orders of Emperor Stefan Amaris to his troops


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 9:31 pm 
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Commanding General
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Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2002 8:00 pm
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Location: Bristol, West of England, Sol III
Quote:
No doubts here either, but I prefer a less subtle approach to my WOBlie killing. An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, and a nuclear annihilation attempt for a nuclear annihilation attempt.
no no... you play em regulan rules... they pull out a knife, you stomp em with a mech... they send one of yours to the hospital, you send all of em and their little dog to the morgue.....


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:46 am 
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Loki
Loki

Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 8:00 pm
Posts: 11444
Location: Minnesnowta
I'm with Geek...and the Regulans...

:devil2:

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Medron Pryde - The Great and Terrible :blah:
[img]http://faileas.greywolf.googlepages.com/WOTD.png[/img]
[url=http://www.pryderockindustries.com]P.R.I.[/url] - The home of BattleTech programs and files
"I'm gonna Tea Party like its 1776." - Medron Pryde
Who is John Galt?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:20 pm 
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General
General

Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 8:00 pm
Posts: 1034
Location: Austin, TX
Quote:
no no... you play em regulan rules... they pull out a knife, you stomp em with a mech... they send one of yours to the hospital, you send all of em and their little dog to the morgue.....
They nuke one of our worlds, we nuke all of theirs and the Mariks on the way back to the bar. Who's buying the first round?

_________________
Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
---Confucius
In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity. ---Albert Einstein


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2006 11:47 pm 
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Warrant Officer
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Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:45 am
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Location: On the Street, keeping the thugs at bay
My biggest WTF? moments came every time an event transpired perpetrated by a WOB/ROM sleeper agent or cell. Captured clan Warships coming back for the Pentagon Worlds disappearing, assassinations, political unrest on Chaos March and Periphery worlds, etc. I think half of their budget must have been in covert ops. It boggles my mind that SOMEONE with Comstar didn't suspect that WOB would plant agents in their ranks; yet it appears that not a single I.S. or clan intelligence agency saw the danger coming. The Jihad ranks as the greatest single intelligence failure in the history of mankind.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2006 8:45 am 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:46 pm
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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
It boggles my mind that SOMEONE with Comstar didn't suspect that WOB would plant agents in their ranks;
Comstar did suspect. It went to elaborate lengths to find the plants. It failed, because the people leading the search were plants. I believe that was discussed in the aftermath of Case White's failure in DotJ.
Quote:
yet it appears that not a single I.S. or clan intelligence agency saw the danger coming.
Nope. Check pg117 (?) of Dawn of the Jihad, the section, "Hidden Armies."

"Hidden Armies" is an article that discusses what the Inner Sphere intelligence community knew about WoB, and it knew a lot. They knew about its "hidden" military units. They knew about - and predicted - WoB's efforts in the Chaos March. Hell, the Dragoons even formed a military alliance against WoB's expansionism in the Chaos March. What the Inner Sphere intelligence community did not know was how WoB would react to the failure of the new Star League, and the intelligence community didn't even know that failure was coming.

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2006 10:32 pm 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2002 8:00 pm
Posts: 1998
Location: The State Of Logic
Quote:
The Jihad ranks as the greatest single intelligence failure in the history of mankind.
Should probably rank as the greatest failure ever.

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[size=85]To indeed be a god. [/size]


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:28 am 
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Captain
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Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:15 pm
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I don't know. I think the whole Amaris coup thing would give it a run for it's money. Either that or the (real life) sudden collapse of the Soviet Union.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:16 am 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:46 pm
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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
I don't know. I think the whole Amaris coup thing would give it a run for it's money.
Yeah, I'm going to put my money on that one. The fallout was even more severe than the Jihad - the collapse of the Star League, the bloody liberation of the Hegemony, the Succession Wars, etc. The Jihad only gave one war.

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 4:05 am 
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Commanding General
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Location: The State Of Logic
Not that I wish to keep this going...

But fallout or number of wars has nothing to do with it.

One world or a million, the effects are nothing to the cause. The cause is the point.

The point is that the number of intelligence units involved meant the Jihad required 5+ intelligence systems to fail to watch a group of fanatics everyone knew to be fanatics.

The Coup only required 1 which wasn't even looking at Amaris anyway as he was considered an ally by just about everyone, save Kerensky.

So, no the Amaris Coup is not even close.

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[size=85]To indeed be a god. [/size]


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:08 am 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:46 pm
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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
The point is that the number of intelligence units involved meant the Jihad required 5+ intelligence systems to fail to watch a group of fanatics everyone knew to be fanatics.
Then by your own definition, the Jihad wasn't an intelligence failure. The Word of Blake was well-watched. Its secret military strength was known. Its maneuvering was known. Its fanaticism was known. Its conflicts in the Chaos March were well-watched.

What the intelligence agencies did not know is how WoB would react to political developments in 3 separate Houses that no one - not the intelligence agencies or other parts of House governments - anticipated.

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 7:45 pm 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2002 8:00 pm
Posts: 1998
Location: The State Of Logic
Quote:
Then by your own definition, the Jihad wasn't an intelligence failure. The Word of Blake was well-watched. Its secret military strength was known. Its maneuvering was known. Its fanaticism was known. Its conflicts in the Chaos March were well-watched.
Of course it was an intelligence failure. The 5+ intelligence services failed to keep track of WoB well-enough to prevent the Jihad from happening.

The enormity of the failure is staggering when, as you mention, the intelligence services knew the strength, knew WoB was maneuvering, knew their fanaticism, and knew they were active in the Chaos March, yet for some reason failed to connect the dots.

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[size=85]To indeed be a god. [/size]


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:12 pm 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
The enormity of the failure is staggering when, as you mention, the intelligence services knew the strength, knew WoB was maneuvering, knew their fanaticism, and knew they were active in the Chaos March, yet for some reason failed to connect the dots.
Yeah...so, when WoB doesn't know the Jihad is coming, how is anyone else supposed to figure it out?

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 12:22 am 
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Loki
Loki

Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 8:00 pm
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Location: Minnesnowta
Which assumes the WOB didn't know the Jihad was coming...I think they had it planned...:-)

I think they wanted to destroy mankind so they could draw us back up, just like the ComStar of old. The only thing is that the Wobblies actually had the big brass ones to do it themselves rather than let the Houses do it...badly.

:-)

_________________
Medron Pryde - The Great and Terrible :blah:
[img]http://faileas.greywolf.googlepages.com/WOTD.png[/img]
[url=http://www.pryderockindustries.com]P.R.I.[/url] - The home of BattleTech programs and files
"I'm gonna Tea Party like its 1776." - Medron Pryde
Who is John Galt?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 1:00 am 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2002 8:00 pm
Posts: 1998
Location: The State Of Logic
Quote:
Yeah...so, when WoB doesn't know the Jihad is coming, how is anyone else supposed to figure it out?
I assume you are talking about a cell vs. pyramidal structure? I am not sure why you might think that if a "cell" is blind it means everyone else is blind. Counterterrorism does not work that way.

Whatever the case nothing would depend on the lowest elements of a cell structure to know what the leader group was doing.

Obviously, if the lower elements of the Jihad had no idea they were participating in the Jihad, it would make no difference to the overall plan because cell organizations operate on the discretion provided by a decentralized form.

However, a state intelligence agency is not look through a cell group's pinhole. There is little comparison. A cell group is the last-end weapon carrying out the orders given by the leadership structure. The state agency would be able to find the patterns of the movements by looking at the big picture and identifying the command structure giving the orders for the movements to the cells.

Contrasted, a pyramidal terrorist structure organization, while capable of more organization falls apart because the structure links directly to the leaders as while the structure makes use of very solid communications lines and resource movement it also suffers from too many direct links.

A cell structure is almost the reverse, far less directly organized, with few overall resources coming directly from the leadership, along with less-direct, often time-consuming communications. The leadership can mask itself behind repeated "blinds" as a result, but as this complicates the nature of an already complicated business (terrorism), the number of potential blinds is limited unless the resources are truly mammoth to create all these blinds.

However, if WoB's center had all these resources, it means they are that much easier to recognise and neutralize.

The intelligence services would target the leadership relentlessly leading to WoB's Jihad short-circuiting.

The fact WoB's leadership are fanatics makes them largely predictable. The fact they have the resources makes them dangerous.

An intelligence agency doesn't need much more than that to decide to take someone out.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 8:24 am 
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Commanding General
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Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:46 pm
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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
Quote:
Yeah...so, when WoB doesn't know the Jihad is coming, how is anyone else supposed to figure it out?
I assume you are talking about a cell vs. pyramidal structure?
No, I'm talking about the spontaneous nature of the Jihad. I disagree with Medron that the Jihad was preplanned.

The "Shadows of Faith" series seems to indicate WoB's leadership was surprised by the collapse of the Star League and had gone into the last Star League conference happy that they were going to become a full member.

And certainly the early attacks of the Jihad - like Tharkad and New Avalon - were very poorly planned, if they were planned.

1) The bombardment of Tharkad accomplished squat except to piss off House Steiner; if you were going to attack a House capital, you'd think the attack would have more focused goals, or use more megatonnage if you were just trying to exterminate the infidels. (And yet WoB was later backpedaling and denying responsibility for the nuclear fallout over Tharkad City - why do that if you were planning to flatten a city?)

2) The attack on New Avalon looked like a classic invasion, but it was marked by insufficient ground troops, insufficient supplies, and insufficient aerospace cover. This smells more like a spontaneous attack by nearby WoB forces than a planned invasion. WoB, after all, has an excellent intel service and had plenty of spare troops and warships to accomplish this invasion, but it took months for WoB to reinforce its surviving troops on New Avalon (who had been driven to guerilla actions almost immediately after landing, and this by surprised and warship-bombarded defenders).

When WoB wants to take a planet, it takes a planet. It took Hesperus II later in the Jihad. That, IMO, says that the opening attacks during the Jihad were unplanned even by the high leadership.

And, of course, there's the MWDA references that say the Jihad was an unplanned tantrum by WoB with inexplicable and unclear goals.

Which leads to my question: how were the intel agencies supposed to know about the Jihad when WoB didn't?

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 7:32 pm 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2002 8:00 pm
Posts: 1998
Location: The State Of Logic
Quote:
And, of course, there's the MWDA references that say the Jihad was an unplanned tantrum by WoB with inexplicable and unclear goals.

Which leads to my question: how were the intel agencies supposed to know about the Jihad when WoB didn't?
More's the pity then, I would suppose.

If the entire action were that poorly planned, then monitoring communications and general activity level of WoB is just all the more easy. The sudden "rush" of communications would themselves send a signal something was up and consequently drive people's attentions further into WoB and further into alert. Even a hurried invasion is going to send out loads of signals previous to its move. A single agent watching with a pair of binoculars suddenly sees all these Dropships mass together, troops loaded on, etc. would pretty much send up a flag they outbound. Mistakes crop up on their own, rushed timetables are thrown awry as mistakes crop up, and enemies are warned that obviously something is coming. If the situation were as rushed as pointed out, then WoB's security is unlikely to keep a firm lid on anything.

This all assumes the WoB units, given "invasion" orders, don't sit there and say, "Um..Central HQ, you want to confirm this please? You want us to do what?"

Planned invasions actually have a better chance for secrecy as they do not spark people's interest as much as a rushed invasion would. Any poorly planned offensive is doomed to failure. Not only failure, but likely to be defeated in detail. So, the Jihad fails to do anything as coordination is lacking and WoB forces essentially throw themselves away. Hence the reason armies do not move without a plan.

Taking Hesperus II, etc. is just, well, laughable without a coordinated effort. Taking a planet on a whim does not happen.

Wow. If the facts/info as related are all from factual sources that means the Jihad is less well-founded than I thought it was. Surprising to say the least.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 8:21 pm 
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Commanding General
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Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:46 pm
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Location: El Dorado
Quote:
Taking Hesperus II, etc. is just, well, laughable without a coordinated effort. Taking a planet on a whim does not happen.
I agree with your second sentence; WoB's failure to do anything meaningful at Tharkad and New Avalon is exactly while I think the Jihad was spontaneous.

BUT Hesperus II was taken later in the Jihad, and definitely with a plan and a great deal of intelligence on Hesperus II. In fact, the fall of Hesperus II was my example of how WoB COULD plan and carry out effective military strategies, thus illustrating the spontaneous nature of the opening rounds of the Jihad (where WoB was screwing up.)

Once WoB realized, "Oops, we just pissed off the Davions and Steiners," they apparently started thinking a little bit more.

In fact, some of their moves show real thought - inciting the FWL-LA war by using coopted FWL units to strike Skye; (I think) rallying the Capellans against the Capellan March incursion by bombarding Sian and framing Davion; and capturing Hesperus II.

Actually, they'll keep playing that "dividing the Houses" card pretty well. They got the Ravens to flatten some Kuritan worlds by framing the Kuritans for nuking a Raven ship, and they'll bring the Taurians screaming into the FS by bombarding Taurus with an asteroid.
Quote:
If the entire action were that poorly planned,
Just the opening shots.
Quote:
then monitoring communications and general activity level of WoB is just all the more easy.
To an extent, yes...though the LCS Invincible was apparently already at Tharkad, and whatever force hit New Avalon was only days away (i.e., communications lag time). As fast as I've seen the US government process information (not at all), the opening round could be missed by intel agencies.

After those first few shots, yes, WoB's actions were probably relatively known just as you described, allowing for the disruption of the HPG net.
Quote:
This all assumes the WoB units, given "invasion" orders, don't sit there and say, "Um..Central HQ, you want to confirm this please? You want us to do what?"
WoB's collective belief set involved saving humanity. Seeing the Star League destroy itself by the votes of arrogant House Lords (history repeating itself) would be plenty of motivation. "Check the news - House Davion just destroyed the Star League. You're near New Avalon. [censored] that place up." In short, the troops had plenty of motivation and probably wouldn't question orders like to bombard Tharkad or invade New Avalon after hearing what the damned inbred shortsighted House Lords did.

(I do find further support for the spontaneity of the Jihad in WoB's reaction to Liao's known withdrawal from the Star League. WoB knew about that before the Star League conference, so it was no surprise when Liao blew off the Star League. All WoB did was withdraw material and technical support from Liao. With just Liao withdrawn from the Star League, there was still no risk to the Star League and WoB demonstrated calm, rational reactions to Liao's behavior. But when Steiner and Davion pulled out...)

There were some intelligence failures against WoB, though not in spotting the Jihad. WoB had good enough operational security to hide 5 mystery planets (e.g., Ruins of Gabriel) that seem give them a lot of support. IIRC, those remained hidden into MWDA. So, intelligence agency penetration into WoB wasn't perfect.

_________________
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer

"Woo, that was bracing! They don't like it when you shoot at them. I worked that out myself." --Mal, Firefly

"Going bonkers from EI or DNI is pushing it. I mean how many Crusaders or Super Wobbies are sane to begin with...." --RockJock01


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 11:00 pm 
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Commanding General
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Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2002 8:00 pm
Posts: 1998
Location: The State Of Logic
Quote:
As fast as I've seen the US government process information (not at all), the opening round could be missed by intel agencies.
The US intelligence apparatus, is (despite what the movies might portray) too large and outmoded and disorganized with way too much bureaucracy in the way of efficient management. This has not changed yet, but the DHS is still young, so perhaps some effective retracing can be made. Obviously, top secret information is not available. However, let's say for argument, successes can be safely said are least fifty percent of the resources alloted.

Compared to an average Successor State intelligence apparatus, generally monolithic in formation with a central intelligence service rather than broken into many (CIA/FBI/CID/NSA/etc.) in the US, the Successor State is far more capable.

It has to be. Otherwise the sheer management of a Successor House would collapse. Success rates of fifty-percent are not going to hold a state together. Certainly, not an interstellar one. There are simply too many variables, too many groups, too much distance, and too much easy weapons capability. So, Successor States are either super-efficient in intelligence areas or the game story is bogus.

Having survived for centuries, the intelligence services have gotten extreme in the efficiency, probably near one hundred-percent. Intelligence apparati are in operation constantly. There is no easy pace and heavy operations do not target only nonactive areas, much to contrast US movement. Groups on a single rebel world are ruthlessly removed. Agitators are neutralized. Morals, ethics, and such are even more repressed than they are in current intelligence operations in favor of loyalty to one's house and the brutal, but covert, grip Houses hold their subjects in.

Doesn't matter what House as they all would practice the same need to retain ruthless control. Without control, with even a small world in rebellion may spread and the Successor House would face dissolution as the distances involved are so vast as to make restructuring the house difficult, if not impossible, in the face of other Houses seeking advantage. Houses do not have an intelligence service that works anything like what we see on our quiet (by comparison) little backwater here. Any assumption by writers as to that, my opinion, is in extreme error.

So, if the snowball is removed, a problem is averted early. If a snowball develops fully into an avalanche, the House itself is threatened. Intelligence services, in this universe, generally speaking, are not nice places to be and function most likely with an eye towards paranoia in protection of their leige House.

This is my contention behind why groups like WoB and their plans would be cited for termination immediately. No one would have waited post-Terra Campaign. If WoB took Terra, they are in possession of a capital prize. The response, despite what may have been going on in other places, would have been swift. The Successor Houses are not so stupid as to not recognize and wipe out a potential "6th House" trying to get into the big show.

Any technological aspects or other that WoB might offer to tempt alliance would not work either. WoB would either submit completely to the House in question or the House would merely wipe out WoB and take whatever pieces were available after.
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There were some intelligence failures against WoB, though not in spotting the Jihad. WoB had good enough operational security to hide 5 mystery planets (e.g., Ruins of Gabriel) that seem give them a lot of support. IIRC, those remained hidden into MWDA. So, intelligence agency penetration into WoB wasn't perfect.
Intelligence does not merely mean the picture of a foe's assets, but more to what he is doing with those assets. Which, alluding to the above, is why I contend that the intelligence failure versus WoB was the worst ever. The mere fact WoB was allowed to live at all is probably an even larger failure.

The hiding of five mystery planets, while certainly possible, means WoB has a place to fall back to, use as massing points, etc.

But the question remains. How realistic is it to suppose that those worlds would remain hidden for any length of time given the fact that the intelligence services, which have helped a Successor House survive for centuries versus the implacable foes of insurrection, chaos, and independence, would be constantly looking for a breach.

In order to use those worlds in anything approaching effiency, input and output to and from would mean that the holes were already there for intelligence services to find. As use breeds knowledge, it would appear, to me, that the answer is that the aspect of WoB hiding much at all is unrealistic.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2006 11:55 pm 
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How good can any given states spooks be if it's neighbors are still there after all these years, and the shooting matches that go with them?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 3:47 am 
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Good enough that they keep each other in check. So good that for every plan one comes up with, the other short circuits. The Houses learned to keep their intelligence sharp, lest a mistake be made in the balance that tips the scales against them. Any House found lacking would have long since been conquered if it could not keep in the race.

"...each House seeks mastery over the others but none can conquer unaided, and none can be trusted as an ally. Thus campaign succeeds campaign and battle follows battle, all without lasting victory or defeat...."

-Tamar Chandrasekar, A Time Of Troubles, Battletech 2nd Edition.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:28 am 
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As fast as I've seen the US government process information (not at all), the opening round could be missed by intel agencies.
Compared to an average Successor State intelligence apparatus, generally monolithic in formation with a central intelligence service rather than broken into many (CIA/FBI/CID/NSA/etc.) in the US, the Successor State is far more capable.
Based on canon examples...no, House intel agencies aren't much more capable. 20 years of BT show the Houses just blunder into war after war and overlook threats until the threat is at their throat.

For example, old Comstar managed to start the Third Succession War, destroy Star League caches, and assassinate countless House scientists without being caught for 250 years.
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It has to be. Otherwise the sheer management of a Successor House would collapse.
I think it's more a matter of local governments handling a lot of the problems than depending on a central, l33t ubyr intel agency.
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So, Successor States are either super-efficient in intelligence areas or the game story is bogus.
The abilities and failures of House intel agencies haven't significantly changed since 1986. The Jihad isn't a sign of sudden intelligence failure; it's more of the status quo with House's intel agenices.
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If WoB took Terra, they are in possession of a capital prize. The response, despite what may have been going on in other places, would have been swift. The Successor Houses are not so stupid as to not recognize and wipe out a potential "6th House" trying to get into the big show
If you take the perspective of a gamer who can ignore the political issues, diplomatic issues, military issues, available information, and social issues in favor of out-of-character knowledge then, yes, that makes sense. House Lords can't do that.

What the House Lords have to deal with:

In-Character Perspective: When WoB seized Terra in 3058, WoB was a non-threat. No one gave a damned about it except Comstar; the Houses were occupied with the Clans, fallout of the 4th Succession War, and Operation Guerro. In 3067, when WoB was busily extending its Protectorate across Chaos March worlds, it was annexing worlds outside the Star League while the Houses were suffering from the 4th Succession War, the Clan invasion, and the FedCom Civil War.

In-Character Perspective 2: Was WoB a threat to the Houses? Heck, no. It was allies to many. WoB was aiding the Capellans; the Capellans weren't going to attack WoB. WoB was aiding the FWL; the FWL wasn't going to attack WoB. WoB was a legacy of the Comstar that had aided the Combine, and WoB wasn't pestering the Combine, so the Combine was more inclined to focus on the threat that held scores of Combine worlds rather than little WoB. House Steiner was similarly preoccupied - WoB wasn't causing any trouble, but the Clans were. Who cared about WoB? There's no justified in-universe cause to drop everything and deal with a splinter group of Terra's owners claiming Terra.

History: Speaking of Terra's value, no one other than Comstar cared that Terra's possession switched hands to Wob. Terra was a neutral non-issue for 250 years. It was a little Switzerland in the heart of the Inner Sphere. Terra had been out of the Houses' strategic equations for longer than the US has existed.

Social Issues: House Davion probably found it more worthwhile to keep rebellions from exploding on the scores of backwater FS planets that almost worshipped old Comstar/WoB than to invade Terra. The FWL's leadership was sympathetic to WoB; it provided them sanctuary, so it's not going to attack WoB.

Military Issues: House Steiner has barbarians pillaging its border. If it could free up enough troops to do something about Terra, it could also probably take back worlds under the Clan yoke. House Kurita is in the same boat - it's damned busy with the Clans. The Capellans have too many lost worlds to recover from the FS, FWL, and Chaos March to be able to do anything about distant Terra. After the bloodshed of the FCCW, the FS and LA weren't in a position to do anything about Terra and WoB; before the FCCW...well, see reasons above.

Diplomatic Issues: WoB is Comstar's problem; a House invading Terra is courting an interdiction from Comstar and bad blood from the other Houses (not to mention the Clans!) over touching holy Terra. Not to mention the Pirahna Principle.
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Any technological aspects or other that WoB might offer to tempt alliance would not work either. WoB would either submit completely to the House in question or the House would merely wipe out WoB and take whatever pieces were available after.
And that makes sense from an out-of-character perspective to someone who has the whole story on WoB up through the Jihad. In-universe characters don't benefit from that kind of omniscience and foresight, and they are restricted by the negative feedback such an action would cause.

Not to mention a lack of capability to handle WoB. WoB started with 20 veteran regiments pried from the ComGuards; between 3025 and 3067, the Inner Sphere mustered a force sufficient to defeat 20+ regiments three times (4th SW; Tukayyid; Operation Bulldog/Serpent). In3058-3067, the Houses had too many military committments to just drop everything and dogpile Terra with sufficient force to clear out WoB. Even the ComGuards were pretty preoccupied with the Clans.

In your home game, you can make House and Clan leaders efficient, bold, and quick-thinking, and you can make them served by l33t intel agencies that know all, see all, and mostly draw the correct conclusions. The more realistic situation is that the leaders are going to screw up, make poor decisions on mediocre intel (e.g., the Capellan March's invasion of the Confederation based on rumors the Capellans aided the bombardment of Tharkad), and have to pay attention to negative feedback from their people when a "bold and decisive" move involves war (e.g., Hanse Davion's attempt to finish off the Confederation in the mid-3030s, or any House thinking of invading Terra in the 3050s when they were faced with Clan occupation, military exhaustion, and social backlash for attacking beloved true believers of Blake.)
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Good enough that they keep each other in check. So good that for every plan one comes up with, the other short circuits.
I disagree. All the military strategy and intelligence plotting don't make the tiny, mis-used militaries of the Houses into something that can readily defeat a House-sized foe. Hanse Davion had to throw off a lot of cultural baggage to achieve the 4th Succession War, which was one-off fluke by Succession War standards. The rest of the Succession Wars and post-SW era is marked by military blundering and head-butting rather than elegant and clever maneuvering.

Frankly, given the limited communications and difficult interstellar travel, I'd expect House intelligence agencies to be marked by their equal levels of incompetency (and thus inability to achieve many meaningful efforts against their foes). That certainly seems to be borne out in the static nature of the Succession Wars - no one could ever make headway.
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"...each House seeks mastery over the others but none can conquer unaided, and none can be trusted as an ally. Thus campaign succeeds campaign and battle follows battle, all without lasting victory or defeat...."
Which, IMO, sounds like a perfect example of an incompetently fought war on par with WWI - just bash against each other time and again and maybe, just maybe, you'll make a little headway (see: CC's gradual decline). Considering how it took a minimum application of commonsense to achieve the success of the 4th SW, that, IMO, doesn't say much about the competency of pre-4th SW militaries, leadership, or intelligence agencies.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 2:33 pm 
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Based on canon examples...no, House intel agencies aren't much more capable. 20 years of BT show the Houses just blunder into war after war and overlook threats until the threat is at their throat.
No, I'm sorry, that is wrong. Drawing this conclusion would fly in the face of canon again because for every canon resource, someone can find a canon source to refute. See also:

House Davion House Book
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"The MIIO has been one of the most effective and creative information gathering serivces in the Inner Sphere. Only the superb investigative abilities of Our Blessed Order (Comstar) surpass the talents of Davion agents...etc."
So, by that example, we can establish House intelligence agencies as being very highly skilled.

Intelligence Operations
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"No single House Lord had been able to gain the upper hand in the war for dominion over the rest of the Inner Sphere, a failure that inspired many attempts to steal the prize using espionage. In fact, the clandestine-operations branch of each great power often acheived far greater successes than their military counterparts in the decades-long Succession Wars."
Doesn't sound incompetent to me.
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For example, old Comstar managed to start the Third Succession War, destroy Star League caches, and assassinate countless House scientists without being caught for 250 years.
Which does not prove the Successor Houses were not also good.

Intel. Ops. Handbook
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"Well known for their often brutal tactics, ROM's operatives rank among the most experienced agents currently active..."
They are not the "best." Comstar are good, more because their domination of secure communications and because they were not primarily defensive in operations - remove those two imbalancing factors, and objectively speaking, Comstar is only as good as the rest.

Nor does this mean Comstar could not be beaten. As Operation Flush, Davion's concentration of intelligence sources versus Comstar to rout them out 3034-3044, shows.

And yet, for all the supposed omniscience of Comstar, they failed to get a member into Wolf's Dragoons.
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I think it's more a matter of local governments handling a lot of the problems than depending on a central, l33t ubyr intel agency.
So what is said here is a House is built on a hegemony system? All evidence to the contrary:

Intel Ops
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"Over the centuries, the Successor States developed star-spanning intelligence services that played an integral role int he endless wars between their nations. Without their intelligence communities, the leaders and military commanders would remain blind to events both outside and within their borders. By the 31st Century, the intelligence networks had grown so vast and powerful that no Lord could afford to neglect them."
Local governments would handle local problems, not "national issues" which, as we've seen mentioned time and again, worlds have little rights when a House leader demands something of them.
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The abilities and failures of House intel agencies haven't significantly changed since 1986. The Jihad isn't a sign of sudden intelligence failure; it's more of the status quo with House's intel agenices.
Okay. Please read Intelligence Operations Handbook. It is far more indepth than what information was available in 1986. The Jihad would apparently as the IOH clearly states increased intelligence resources revolving around WoB's operations by Sucessor States.
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If you take the perspective of a gamer who can ignore the political issues, diplomatic issues, military issues, available information, and social issues in favor of out-of-character knowledge then, yes, that makes sense. House Lords can't do that.
Not to prove contrary again, but the entire point of the Succession Wars has been to see who sits on Terra....

And I am not ignoring anything. Please do not assume.
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What the House Lords have to deal with:

In-Character Perspective: When WoB seized Terra in 3058, WoB was a non-threat. No one gave a damned about it except Comstar; the Houses were occupied with the Clans, fallout of the 4th Succession War, and Operation Guerro. In 3067, when WoB was busily extending its Protectorate across Chaos March worlds, it was annexing worlds outside the Star League while the Houses were suffering from the 4th Succession War, the Clan invasion, and the FedCom Civil War.
In-character perspective? We don't see direct evidence the House Lords breathe air, yet we can surmise they do. If we are going to operate solely on what is literally said, then the scope is too limited.

Saying the Houses don't care is just, well, illogical. The whole point of the Succession Wars was to determine a First Lord. You have said yourself on countless occasions how Terra remained valuable. It remained valuable as a social marker, industrial facility, and strategic system. While Comstar had it, it remained neutral. As Comstar Post-4th War is said in the canon it was no longer seen be neutral, then Terra would increase in value as it is owned by a party that could be a threat.
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In-Character Perspective 2: Was WoB a threat to the Houses? Heck, no.
Please reread the following:

Sarna March
Ideal War
Double Blind
Binding Force
Threads of Ambition
The Killing Fields
Blood of Kerensky
and pretty much any of the '90's Stackpole novels.
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WoB wasn't causing any trouble, but the Clans were.
Yes, WoB was causing trouble. Again, reread those above.
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Where's this magical dread of some nuts seizing Terra?
You tell me: Paraphrased from "The Fall of Terra":
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"Made On Terra" products sell at a premium, the massive trade, cultural, export of military manufacturing to Kurita, Davion, and Steiner Successor States, and tourist industry (all but wiped out by WoB's invasion) and the base senimentality Inner Sphere peoples have for Terra.
All of which are spelled out in the text. Wars have been launched for far far less reasoning.
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Terra had been out of the Houses' strategic equations for longer than the US has existed.
Then, pray tell, was anyone concerned with keeping open a Terran corridor? The truth is, the Terran "question" was all pervading. This is why states kept garrisons on worlds near it and why movements expanded to the frontiers. This is why the shape is a Sphere and not a bunch of lines, see?
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Military Issues: House Steiner has barbarians pillaging its border. If it could free up enough troops to do something about Terra, it could also probably take back worlds under the Clan yoke. House Kurita is in the same boat - it's damned busy with the Clans....
Yep, everyone is busy. Everyone was busy during the Succession Wars too, not much has changed in the overall number of theatres at war.
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Diplomatic Issues: WoB is Comstar's problem; a House invading Terra is courting an interdiction from Comstar and bad blood from the other Houses (not to mention the Clans!) over touching holy Terra. Not to mention the Pirahna Principle.
First, Comstar wouldn't bother interdicting a House attempting to remove Word of Blake. As Word Of Blake does not control all the HPGs this is less of threat.

Second, if as you say, "bad blood" would exist as a result of going after Terra, then WoB is generating "bad blood" by invading Terra.

Third, suspension of the greater effects of the Piranha Principle are evidenced through Operation Bulldog and other anti-Inner Sphere threats. As WoB is generally anti-Inner Sphere, it seems likely the Piranha Principle would not hold very well as obstruction to their removal.
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And that makes sense from an out-of-character perspective to someone who has the whole story on WoB up through the Jihad.
Nah, it makes sense merely based on logical moves. No one needs an ally when the ally provides little or nothing that cannot be provided by the central power itself. WoB is not a buffer, has been shown to operate in a crazed fashion even to characters, is known to operate in the same schizoid religious ways, controls only part of the HPG network, and has very limited trust outside of the Free Worlds League. Doesn't sound like an ally anyone would want.
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In-universe characters don't benefit from that kind of omniscience and foresight, and they are restricted by the negative feedback such an action would cause.
In-universe characters benefit from whatever a writer decides to give them. If a writer decides to give Character "X" a spur of even basic wisdom, then he does so. It really is quite simple.
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The more realistic situation is that the leaders are going to screw up, make poor decisions on mediocre intel and have to pay attention to negative feedback from their people when a "bold and decisive" move involves war (e.g., Hanse Davion's attempt to finish off the Confederation in the mid-3030s, or any House thinking of invading Terra in the 3050s when they were faced with Clan occupation, military exhaustion...
Um, Davion launched the invasion of the Draconis Combine (War of 3039), not the Capellan Confederation. Actually, that is not "more realistic" to ascertain the leaders would screw up. How does "more realistic" = "what the canon spoon feeds?" If the House Lords were so overly concerned about their people's feedback, then I doubt they would have been at war for as long as they have. At best, social feedback is a brake, not a wall, on the moves of the House Lords.
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and social backlash for attacking beloved true believers of Blake.
I don't see where it has been mentioned anyone would have cared about this.
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I disagree. All the military strategy and intelligence plotting don't make the tiny, mis-used militaries of the Houses into something that can readily defeat a House-sized foe.
A cursory reading of a House Book normally shows at one time or another, a House has been closed to defeat and near the pinnacle of success at various times throughout the history largely due to intelligence information, masking, or outright military success.
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Frankly, given the limited communications and difficult interstellar travel, I'd expect House intelligence agencies to be marked by their equal levels of incompetency (and thus inability to achieve many meaningful efforts against their foes). That certainly seems to be borne out in the static nature of the Succession Wars - no one could ever make headway.
Limited communications would not seem to be borne out because it is quite obvious interstellar trade runs quite efficiently and the apparent "HPG-on-every-world" aspect to the universe would dispell it. Certainly a House, with all the resources it conjures, are not as limited when enacting various plans.

The static nature of the Succession Wars reflects a balance of skill, not necessarily a lack of any. Show me a canon source that directly states the reason the Succession Wars are static is because a lack of skill.
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Which, IMO, sounds like a perfect example of an incompetently fought war on par with WWI - just bash against each other time and again and maybe, just maybe, you'll make a little headway
As it is your opinion, that's fine. But that opinion would not seem to be supported by the historical maneuvers during the Succession Wars.
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Considering how it took a minimum application of commonsense to achieve the success of the 4th SW, that, IMO, doesn't say much about the competency of pre-4th SW militaries, leadership, or intelligence agencies.
"And that makes sense from an out-of-character perspective to someone who has the whole story....In-universe characters don't benefit from that kind of omniscience and foresight..."

Sound familiar? According to canon resources, the contrary is true and the Houses are very skilled.

However, the end-result competency of any force would be given by the writer fiat. Hence the canon success of the Clans, Jihad, and just about any other campaign TPTB determine must happen in order to retain player interest.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 3:32 pm 
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The enormity of the failure is staggering when, as you mention, the intelligence services knew the strength, knew WoB was maneuvering, knew their fanaticism, and knew they were active in the Chaos March, yet for some reason failed to connect the dots.
Yeah...so, when WoB doesn't know the Jihad is coming, how is anyone else supposed to figure it out?
Again I point out that too many things just seemed to fall into place for the WoB to make their rise from fringe group to major power seem well poorly written and planned by the writers.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 7:28 pm 
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The enormity of the failure is staggering when, as you mention, the intelligence services knew the strength, knew WoB was maneuvering, knew their fanaticism, and knew they were active in the Chaos March, yet for some reason failed to connect the dots.
Yeah...so, when WoB doesn't know the Jihad is coming, how is anyone else supposed to figure it out?
Part of the problem I have with the whole execution of the Jihad is that they have their fingers in everything, have been doing who knows what in deep space to hurl asteroids at plantes, have been building up secret armies, and subverting the FWL wholesale whilst robbing them blind...but the Jihad was a spur of the moment thing.

It's clear that WoB had something big planned, and it involved a crapload of troops and subversions and mercs, but setting up the Blake Protectorate can only explain part of that.

WoB was getting ready for the big something for ages but then we're told the Jihad was spur of the moment. It's just not adding up.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:57 pm 
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WoB was getting ready for the big something for ages but then we're told the Jihad was spur of the moment. It's just not adding up.
maybe the new star league and a new golden age of humanity? ;p


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:39 pm 
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Part of the problem I have with the whole execution of the Jihad is that they have their fingers in everything,
WoB isn't small and didn't start small, contrary to Karagin's mantra. It probably has hundreds of millions of employees in the FWL alone and has widespread support among the tens of billions of people who were raised under old Comstar's spread of Blake's words.

For example, many of the Federated Suns' "Skidrow Worlds" were more favorable toward old Comstar than the FS government; one even had the image of a Comstar acolyte on its flag.

With that much manpower and that many inherited resources (from centuries of Comstar accumulation), they can get their fingers in a lot of critical pies

Then when a House works hand-in-hand with WoB, it can spread even further.
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have been doing who knows what in deep space to hurl asteroids at plantes
Anyone with a dropship and patience could do that. Nukes are just cheaper and easier WMDs. Frankly, I'm not sure why WoB bothered with asteroids. Maybe they were grasping for straws by that point, though nukes are easy enough to make.
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have been building up secret armies, and subverting the FWL wholesale whilst robbing them blind...
Well, the Captain-General was aiding and abetting WoB. You can get a lot done when a popular commander-in-chief backs your infiltration of his government.
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but the Jihad was a spur of the moment thing.

It's clear that WoB had something big planned, and it involved a crapload of troops and subversions and mercs, but setting up the Blake Protectorate can only explain part of that.
Yep. They were up to something. It looks like they were planning something to show they were worthy members of the Star League when they became full members. I don't know what that is, though, except that involved a lot of military action.

Those assets were redirected clumsily toward the Jihad, like the bungled invasion of New Avalon and the tantrum-like bombardment of Tharkad.
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So, by that example, we can establish House intelligence agencies as being very highly skilled.
Yeah, by an in-universe perspective, the intel agencies are pretty good. Likewise, the Mossad has a real world reputation for being pretty good. You haven't provided an objective scale to show how those "pretty goods" differ.
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Please read Intelligence Operations Handbook.
I did, if not recently enough; it didn't inspire me when I keep it in the context of the House SBs and the House Handbooks. There's a 20-year picture of average to mediocre performance by the Houses in them. That says to me when an intel book in the same setting claims, "This agency is rully rully kewl n ubyr," it's not really all that more cool and elite than real world intel agencies with the same sort of reputation.
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Not to prove contrary again, but the entire point of the Succession Wars has been to see who sits on Terra....
No, the point was to be First Lord of the Star League, and several participants had bowed out in the First and Second Succession War (e.g., Ilsa Liao's peace overtures). Notably, the new Star League did not start on Terra and several Houses stayed in - or started wars - just over past wars' damage.
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Um, Davion launched the invasion of the Draconis Combine (War of 3039), not the Capellan Confederation.
And Hanse Davion tried to launch a war against the Capellan Confederation in the mid-3030s, but faced hostility from the St. Ives Compact, his wife, and his mother-in-law (as representatives of the Lyran Commonwealth, who felt he was being too much of a warmonger.) See FM:CC. As I said, the in-universe characters have to deal with backlashes for starting random wars. And unlike the CC, WoB has a large number of backers in the Federated Suns.
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Yep, everyone is busy. Everyone was busy during the Succession Wars too, not much has changed in the overall number of theatres at war.
Close enough to my point.
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But that opinion would not seem to be supported by the historical maneuvers during the Succession Wars.
I disagree. The Wars, especially the Third War, showed no great competency. The 4th War wasn't even a big breakthrough - Hanse Davion explicitly said (in the Warrior trilogy) he was just reading his history books about WW2, where armies larger than the Houses' were controlled with vastly more primitive communications. He was inspired to try the same in the Galahad Exercises, to try the break the deadlock of stupid, feudal-style mechwarriors-are-knights challenges and apply some modern strategy and tactics to the battlefield.

The incompetency and leadership problems of the Capellans and Combine are also laid bare in the Warrior trilogy.
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If the House Lords were so overly concerned about their people's feedback, then I doubt they would have been at war for as long as they have.
That's easy - they were just defending themselves from the aggression of their warmongering neighbors. Only the CC and DC really espoused an offensive philosophy (e.g., the DC's Dictum Honorium), and the CC had sued for peace during the 1st SW, even offering to support Davion's bid for the throne of the Star League.

As an example, see the old House Davion SB under "Overtures of Peace" during the 2840s. "The details of these peace proposals were never made public, but enough leaked to throw the FS into turmoil through the first decade of Prince Michael's reign. Political opinion was dead set against any peace that would mean the loss of native soil. ...there were three attempts on Prince Michael's life during this time." That was the public opinion after a half century of the most destructive warfare in human history.
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Considering how it took a minimum application of commonsense to achieve the success of the 4th SW, that, IMO, doesn't say much about the competency of pre-4th SW militaries, leadership, or intelligence agencies.
"And that makes sense from an out-of-character perspective to someone who has the whole story....In-universe characters don't benefit from that kind of omniscience and foresight..."

Sound familiar?
Yes, because I was trying to connect the earlier point (thank you for quoting it) to the later point that the House Lords couldn't see "obvious" (to readers) historical lessons like the logistics behind the 4th SW. I mean, when I'm trying to reinforce a point, I'd hope it sounds familiar when I repeat it.
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Show me a canon source that directly states the reason the Succession Wars are static is because a lack of skill.
Every House SB. Just from Davion (note these are references, not full descriptions of the incidents):

Towne Debacle
("On paper the Davion Army was larger than any other House army, but it had several serious flaws...")

First Succesion War, "The Storm Breaks." One Davion general fought an inspired defense when outnumbered 5 to 1...but his neighboring Field Marshals refused to reinforce him except with token reinforcements even in the face of the danger. With the defeat of the Clovis Combat region thanks to incompetent Davion generals, the route to New Avalon was opened.

First Succession War, overall strategy: The FS concentrated on the Capellan Confederation and left its butt open to the Combine.

General Motochika: "Though his battlefield performance was as dull and unimaginative as any typical Kurita officer..."

Howler Greer: Good mobile commander, managed to seize most of Tikonov, but didn't think to protect his supply lines.

Paul's Last Years: The Tikonov Campaign was fought badly enough to even puzzle the 2nd SW AFFS, with the fault placed on a distracted First Prince. And, of course, a successful offensive to retake a Terran Corridor just ground to a halt when the First Prince died - apparently the AFFS wasn't competent enough to continue fighting with a hiccup in leadership.

Robinson: The Kuritans kept the AFFS's attention away from the capital of the Draconis March with suicide attacks elsewhere. Rarg, genius military strategy, right up there with the kamikazes of WW2.

End of the 2nd SW: A spineless, terrified Chancellor signs away all FS territorial gains to date in a peace treaty. Brilliant.

Third SW: Kuritan in-fighting. "It came out later that General Taragi Kurita had himself sabotaged the [DCMS] supply lines to make General Tengwan appear to be incompetent in his report to Coordinator Miyogi." The Kuritan leadership was backstabbing its own troops for personal gain.

The Brotherhoods: 'nuff said.

Prince Ian Davion: "He was happiest when leading soldiers and mechs into battle, and preferred to leave the problems of politics to others. nor did he appreciate being told what to do, and so he often disregarded the experience, abilities, and suggestions of others when it came to the issues of government. Before long, the realm began to suffer."

Michael Hasek-Davion's influence: "Indeed, this kind of corruption within House Davion's administrative ranks led to a general decline in military prowess...The deterioration was particularly evident on the Capellan front..." Where the Dry River Devil mercs were forced to surrender because of a snarl in logistics due to incompetency and corruption.

And here's a good one:

The Fox: "During the past decade, the FS has taken the first definite steps toward ending the long stalement of the SW. Under the rule of Hanse Davion, the Federation has enjoyed more social, economic, technical, and military recovery than in 2 centuries before him..." In other words, the FS was demonstrating stagnation, not genius of leadership prior to Hanse Davion.

Genius? It took Lyrans to show the Davions how to exploit their own resources. (See, "Future of the Federation.")

Ministry of Adminstrative Services: 'nuff said.

The pigheadness of the DCMS is legendary. Do you want examples of the lack of initiative shown by DCMS officers? Or should I just point to Takashi's stubborn efforts to lead L1 mechs in banzai charges against the Clan invaders on Luthien unless a gun was held to his head?

Getting into the House Steiner SB and reviewing the endless faults of the LCAF would be an exercise in overkill in demonstrating military stupidity.

And the Capellan SB is a picture in economic stupidity only exceeded by the Clanonomics. The Liaoist Doctrine? Geez.
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A cursory reading of a House Book normally shows at one time or another, a House has been closed to defeat and near the pinnacle of success at various times throughout the history largely due to intelligence information, masking, or outright military success.
Yep. A handful of times for each House, over a period of 250 years of war. Then 150 years of static conflict broken when one House leader reads a history book.
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In-universe characters benefit from whatever a writer decides to give them. If a writer decides to give Character "X" a spur of even basic wisdom, then he does so. It really is quite simple.
Yeah, it's really quite simple if you're not writing BT and your works aren't reviewed by a bunch of volunteer geeks with nothing better to do that poke holes in the plausibility of your plotline and characters. Ask Herb how much fun he has just trying to justify an orbital bombardment of a planetary capital, let alone a major plot point.
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Sarna March
Ideal War
Double Blind
Binding Force
Threads of Ambition
The Killing Fields
Yes. And the conclusion by the Houses was that WoB was worth becoming a junior member of the Star League, probably a full member if the League hadn't folded.
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Blood of Kerensky
Did the Schism occur in the last book of the trilogy, or did the BoK trilogy predate WoB's birth?

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:44 am 
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Yeah, by an in-universe perspective, the intel agencies are pretty good.
The point was to establish their skill level. That's been established they are very good. Glad to see we are making headway. It is only too bad such intelligence services failed to find evidence of the Jihad. That they could not find evidence and connect the dots given what we have said, seems, as before, strange.
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No, the point was to be First Lord of the Star League
Which is what I said. "Who sits on Terra.." I'll try to be more clear.
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and several participants had bowed out in the First and Second Succession War (e.g., Ilsa Liao's peace overtures).
No. Such overtures were canceled/rebuffed under Laurelli Laio (her daughter). So, no one really bowed out of anything as the wars persisted and certainly by 3025 everyone still had their eyes on the SL throne.

This is made pretty directly clear in 2nd Edition:

Page 8, "All five royal Houses claim the title of First Lord...."
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And Hanse Davion tried to launch a war against the Capellan Confederation in the mid-3030s, but faced hostility from the St. Ives Compact, his wife, and his mother-in-law (as representatives of the Lyran Commonwealth, who felt he was being too much of a warmonger.) See FM:CC.
Ah. I was looking at the 20 Year Update which does not mention a planned invasion. So I suppose it depends on which source as apparently, the authors of FM could not be bothered to check with previous publications (a sad repeated problem in this game line unfortunately but that's okay).
[quote="Augustus"]If the House Lords were so overly concerned about their people's feedback, then I doubt they would have been at war for as long as they have.[/quote]
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As an example, see the old House Davion SB under "Overtures of Peace" during the 2840s. "The details of these peace proposals were never made public, but enough leaked to throw the FS into turmoil through the first decade of Prince Michael's reign. Political opinion was dead set against any peace that would mean the loss of native soil. ...there were three attempts on Prince Michael's life during this time." That was the public opinion after a half century of the most destructive warfare in human history.
Thank you for proving my point. We can dispense with the idea that public backlash would take place versus a move thought to be unpopular. As both the nobility and the populace wanted no foreign interloper as a threat near them, they were dead-set against a peace or alliance. Give them a reason, such as mad fanatics like WoB, and they'll move mountains.
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Yes, because I was trying to connect the earlier point (thank you for quoting it) to the later point that the House Lords couldn't see "obvious" (to readers) historical lessons like the logistics behind the 4th SW. I mean, when I'm trying to reinforce a point, I'd hope it sounds familiar when I repeat it.
Huh. Looks like you missed what came after that.

It's okay, I can say that again: According to canon resources, the contrary is true and the Houses are very skilled.

I was pretty sure we already established their skill level.
[quote="Augustus"]Show me a canon source that directly states the reason the Succession Wars are static is because a lack of skill.[/quote]
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Every House SB. Just from Davion (note these are references, not full descriptions of the incidents):
No, Cray. I said a direct statement that the reason the Succession Wars are static is because a lack of skill. Please find a direct statement.

What that large list represented is all the various actions and problems the Houses overcame or survived. (Thank you for pointing that out as the Houses do seem very adept at survival despite the years of warfare).
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Yep. A handful of times for each House, over a period of 250 years of war. Then 150 years of static conflict broken when one House leader reads a history book.
150 years of smart strategic/political maneuvering reflecting the heavily damaged nature thanks to the intense warfare...

From the House Davion book concerning the Third Succession War:
"By 2866, it was becoming obvious the unofficial peace would not hold. As the fighting among the other Houses resumed, Prince Michael kept the Federated Suns out of major conflicts. He reasoned that by avoiding involvement in hostilities, the Suns could take on the role of mediator, eventually to impose a peace agreement on the other realms."

Perhaps it was naive to believe House Davion could be a mediator (hey, they tried at least), but nevertheless just this example shows that the static nature was more by choice to preserve scarce resources/lessen damage than any true lack of strategic thinking.
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Yeah, it's really quite simple if you're not writing BT and your works aren't reviewed by a bunch of volunteer geeks with nothing better to do that poke holes in the plausibility of your plotline and characters. Ask Herb how much fun he has just trying to justify an orbital bombardment of a planetary capital, let alone a major plot point.
If my poking errors in your/his/their/its work bothers you, then I'm sorry. I do not wish to upset you, just trying to make the game story better.
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Yes. And the conclusion by the Houses was that WoB was worth becoming a junior member of the Star League, probably a full member if the League hadn't folded.
Sounds like that conclusion is mistaken or something. From what I read in those books, it would seem WoB was found to be mettling in the affairs of major nations and periphery realms, trying to assassinate major and lesser personages, smuggling hightech weaponry, interfering with state trade, unbalancing worlds wherever they could, disrupting communications...amongst other nefarious plots.

Does not seem like a recipe for such a splinter group to be asked to be an ally.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 5:41 am 
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Part of the problem I have with the whole execution of the Jihad is that they have their fingers in everything,
WoB isn't small and didn't start small, contrary to Karagin's mantra. It probably has hundreds of millions of employees in the FWL alone and has widespread support among the tens of billions of people who were raised under old Comstar's spread of Blake's words.

For example, many of the Federated Suns' "Skidrow Worlds" were more favorable toward old Comstar than the FS government; one even had the image of a Comstar acolyte on its flag.
You may want to go and re-read the Lost Destiny novel again, mainly the part where Focht and the Comstar Primuses are all talking, it states clearly in there that the WoB was small.

You are still trying to convince us that in a few years they can go from a group struggling on Gibson, fighting with the locals no less, to all of a sudden gaining tons of tech, tons of money and troops and all of this is convientally keep hidden without as much as an eyebrow raises and then they can attack Terra, take it and no one seems to care...

Cray come on, apply some common sense here, even with their money and aid of the FWL they would NOT be doing all that is a credited to them. Next you will be telling us that they had the old Amaris factories up and running all along and this whole Jihad plan or plans was an old ComStar operation from back when that group was founded...heck at this rate the question comes up, if the WoB can do all it's doing now, why didn't ComStar pull this stun off say back when the 1st Succession War ended or the 2nd or the 3rd or the 4th.

I think they, TPTB, need to give us ALL of the info and not in the fashion that was handed out in DOTJ source book. It needs to be done just as all of the other sourcebooks, in chapter format that covers the fighting and what is involved without all the "rumors" and tabloid reporting. That stuff should be saved for novels. There it can help explain things and give us the "in character" feel that is to be epxected in novels. Source books should be used to give game facts and easy to use info.

Also so far nothing has been done to explain how they (WOB) did their recuriting and where they got all the money from to pay for everything. Even with the idea that they picked up down on their luck mercs and such doesn't even come close to answering it. And please don't try to sell the idea that Terra gives them everything either, because again if it did then ComStar would have the manpower and industrial base to pull the Jihad or something like it, off years earlier.

So gain please try to explain to us how a group goes from being a small player to a major player that is causing sweeping changes from one end of the galaxy to the other...because so far I don't see anything that really supports this.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 8:59 am 
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Ah. I was looking at the 20 Year Update which does not mention a planned invasion. So I suppose it depends on which source as apparently, the authors of FM could not be bothered to check with previous publications (a sad repeated problem in this game line unfortunately but that's okay).
Another sad and oft-repeated problem is when fans assume there's a mistake or lack of research when, in fact, the new information was deliberate.

The 20-Year handbook did not detail a lot of things, which has bugged FASA and FanPro writers. There was this big, turbulent period that was skimmed over in a few short books before the Clans invaded. This time period is being backfilled with some of the Historicals books, like the Historicals: War of 3039.

Another issue deliberately cleared up (due to endless fan questions, I'm told) was why the AFFS didn't finish of the CC as soon as it caught its breath from the 4th SW. The rebellions in Skye were an insufficient argument and it seemed like too much of out-of-character behavior for Hanse to let go of the hated Capellans without finishing them off.
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If the House Lords were so overly concerned about their people's feedback, then I doubt they would have been at war for as long as they have.
As an example, see the old House Davion SB under "Overtures of Peace" during the 2840s. "The details of these peace proposals were never made public, but enough leaked to throw the FS into turmoil through the first decade of Prince Michael's reign. Political opinion was dead set against any peace that would mean the loss of native soil. ...there were three attempts on Prince Michael's life during this time." That was the public opinion after a half century of the most destructive warfare in human history.
Thank you for proving my point. We can dispense with the idea that public backlash would take place versus a move thought to be unpopular.
Actually, that quote is additional proof that there are backlashes against unpopular decisions, like either going to war (War of 3035) or not going to war (peace overtures of 2840), that House leaders have to deal with. They don't get to attack popular quasi-religious movements like WoB (pre-Jihad) without facing backlash.
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Give them a reason, such as mad fanatics like WoB, and they'll move mountains.
And certainly the House leaders had great support against WoB once WoB was generally viewed as mad fanatics by key demographics. But until the Jihad, opposition was small and local.
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It's okay, I can say that again: According to canon resources, the contrary is true and the Houses are very skilled.
If you're stuck on the idea that Houses, on average, have superior politicians, intelligence agencies, and militaries to those of real life, you have fundamental misunderstandings about BT that make further discussion moot.

Since we're interpretting the same info differently, perhaps you'd care to make this a poll to think how many people think the average House government, intel agency, and military is more competent than RL equivalents? Maybe a graduated scale of "much more competent," "more competent," "about the same," "less competent," "much less competent"?

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 11:56 am 
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We'll just have to agree to disagree Cray. I don't accept the idea that the Jihad was a spur of the moment thing despite the fact that pretty much everytthing the needed to be in place was (with the possible exceptions of New Avalon and Tharkad).

Recent statements by Herb insinuated that at the end of the Jihad Hot Spot book series, there might not be a tell-all Jihad sourcebook after all for fears that it might alienate players who bought all the Hot Spots books and BattleCorps fiction. This would be a huge disservice to the fans in my opinion. The Jihad Hot Spots are great if you want a confusing look at what happened, but it is utterly meaningless without the hows and whys certain events transpired like they did. The omnipotent (or as close to it as BT sourcebooks come) viewpoint desperately needs to be included to make the Jihad workable for those of us not tight with FanPro and WizKids.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 12:02 pm 
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We'll just have to agree to disagree Cray. I don't accept the idea that the Jihad was a spur of the moment thing despite the fact that pretty much everytthing the needed to be in place was (with the possible exceptions of New Avalon and Tharkad).
Actually, Tharkad and New Avalon looked like examples of nearly in-place gear that got transitioned from one role to another.

What else do you think was in place?

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:27 pm 
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Another sad and oft-repeated problem is when fans assume there's a mistake or lack of research when, in fact, the new information was deliberate.
Ah. I can see where this reason would be needed from time to time. Fortunately, in this case, we have shown the information has not been as well-supported as it might have been.
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They don't get to attack popular quasi-religious movements like WoB (pre-Jihad) without facing backlash.
Actually, they don't get backlash. The Inner Sphere peoples seem able to understand the removal of a national threat is a good thing, hence why the Succession Wars have fought so long - people understand, generally speaking, that the superiority of their state is paramount and removal of such movements as WoB would be helpful. Otherwise, it would be like complaining someone removed Al Qaeda.
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But until the Jihad, opposition was small and local.
Which via the efficient intelligence services (which we have established) of the Successor States would be acted on, unless there was some massive intelligence failure to allow the Jihad as I first said (which seems unlikely).
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If you're stuck on the idea that Houses, on average, have superior politicians, intelligence agencies, and militaries to those of real life, you have fundamental misunderstandings about BT that make further discussion moot.
So far, I have offered information directly from canon material, which apparently has been ignored or missed. Ignorance of the mistakes and/or weaknesses in the story writing is one thing, but I am trying to help you understand the Battletech world better. All I can do is point it out so the mistake does not continue or is alleviated.

Would you like to continue this discussion via email/pm?

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:47 am 
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WoB was getting ready for the big something for ages but then we're told the Jihad was spur of the moment. It's just not adding up.
maybe the new star league and a new golden age of humanity? ;p
If that is true, why did they hire Waco's Rangers and so many other untrustworthy and just plain evil mercenary units out there? Either it is a coincidence that they just "happened" to have mercs willing to do the nasty on anybody, or they were PLANNING to do the nasty on everybody. I know which I prefer to believe.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:22 am 
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If that is true, why did they hire Waco's Rangers and so many other untrustworthy and just plain evil mercenary units out there?
Three reasons:

First, obviously, they didn't hire the mercs with poor reputations to protect the Star League and bring about the golden age of man. They had other uses for the scum.

Second, the job on Outreach required troops on-site to be most effective without expending an enormous number of troops against the Dragoon's prepared defenses. The most available troops were down-on-their-luck mercs.

Third, after the Star League collapsed, WoB was fighting infidels and was greatly outnumbered. Did it care that it was using war crime scum to fight the monsters who destroyed the Star League? WoB does demonstrate a lack of good propaganda when it tries to intimidate the Houses into reforming the Inner Sphere (or "Obey the Master"), such as using nukes. Using mercs willing to commit war crimes sounds on par with typical WoB leadership thinking.

(And Waco's Rangers doesn't have a reputation for war crimes. Their hard luck comes from other problems.)
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Either it is a coincidence that they just "happened" to have mercs willing to do the nasty on anybody, or they were PLANNING to do the nasty on everybody.
That either-or doesn't work together since there are other explanations. The coincidental timing of the attack on Outreach vs the collapse of the Star League, for example. Further, the WoB merc misbehavior really began to roll after 3067 - when WoB had enough time to recognize its situation (it was clearly facing legions of unbelievers who destroyed the Star League) AND when WoB had time to hire whatever scum it could. Scum to fight scum.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:52 pm 
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Okay and you are trying to tell us that WolfNet missed all of this? I find that hard to believe. Given all the canon facts and taking into account that WolfNet isn't perfect it's hard to believe that they missed the WoBs efforts of raising their army and their little tricks and such...but I guess we are stuck with what has happen since it's the future of the game.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:32 am 
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Wolfnet has always been overrated. They have constantly missed the big "In your face" things hitting them.

They totally missed the infiltration and subsequent destruction of their habitant station while in the DC.

They totally missed the buildups to the 'Goons Civil War.

They dropped the ball on WoB recruiting in their backyard, being too busy focusing on the Chaos March and Clan border most likely.

But people seem to think that Wolfnet is the Holy Grail of btech intel services, the Ones Who Knows All(tm). They're not. They are just as fallible as everyone else, espesially after their civil war.

Øystein

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:51 am 
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If you say so Oystein, then again I guess we have to believe a group can go from nothing to taking on the whole Inner Sphere and Clan powers and no other nation or power base can manage to do the same in close to 300 years.

But hey it's the Wobbies turn and they are needed to push the story toward the Dark Age timeline and setting, seeing how that's the bottom line it's hard to sell this one with out it seeming a tad tripe and lackluster given all of the other things they could have gone with to reach the same goal.

As for the Dragoons, I never said they were perfect, they had a lot going for them and they got taken down a peg or two, okay it happens. BUT even with all of their tech and toys they never took on the whole Inner Sphere and they never seemed to be set to be a power house like has been done with the WoB.

As for missing everything, gee according to TPTB, EVERYONE missed the WoB's actions and signs to what they were doing...and yet that is okay and we aren't suppose to point out that this is one of the biggest issues with the whole Jihad story line along with the money and logistical issues etc...but hey I guess this was all needed to help bring BT back to the level of one lance can take and defend a whole world level of play...

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:22 am 
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First off, why would the Great Houses keep any special tabs on the Word of Blake before 3067? What would cause them to spent their intel assets,in the middle of a bloody civil war and other conflicts, to bother looking at the slightly nutty phone company?

The only ones with a real reason to take a hard look at the Word of Blake was ComStar, and they were about as effective as SAFE is. The CapCon had reasons to be suspicious about the WoB after the attempt on Sunnys life (course, he personally shot the one behind that).

But the Draconis Combine had really no real contact with the WoB at all, and was busy with the Ghost Bears, Nova Cats, Fed Suns and Black Dragon, and not to mention the Snow Ravens.

The Lyran was busy killing themselves and the Feddies, along with the occational Jade Falcon, Free Skye and Wolves.

The FedSuns was busy killing themselves and the Lyrans, and the Kuritans, the Taurians and the Capellans.

The FWL is firmly in the WoBs pocket.

Before 3067 the only real overt moves WoB ever did was take over Terra, which basically is just part of the ongoing 'civil war' between the WoB and ComStar, as long as the HPGs are operating, the Greater Houses wouldn't care that much more.

Then there is the Chaos March. The only real reason I can see why the Allied Mercenary Command was against it, is simply the loss of business. With a pacified Chaos March, there is no more work for mercenaries there. And the Chaos March was likely a far preferable place to work than for the Great Houses at that time. Less chance to get totally wiped out in a civil war for instance.

There are two recent RL comparisons which show that even when everyone *have* their eyes on something, they can easily drop the ball. One is the fall of the Soviet Union. With all the assets of the CIA, MI6, the french, the germans and so on, noone saw it coming. Or if some analyst did, their superiors decided he was smoking something and threw it in a pile. Same with the 9/11 attacks.

Maybe if ICly the Great Houses go back after 3067 and look at their intel, they might find small clues which in 20/20 hindsight does give them a warning, but before the dirty deed it was overlooked or deemed irrelevant to them.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 8:30 pm 
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Captain
Captain

Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:15 pm
Posts: 256
Quote:
First off, why would the Great Houses keep any special tabs on the Word of Blake before 3067? What would cause them to spent their intel assets,in the middle of a bloody civil war and other conflicts, to bother looking at the slightly nutty phone company?
The question isn't why would they look at WoB, but rather why wouldn't theny?

You have the Word of Blake who manages to take Terra from ComStar. Granted, for just the telephone company aspect of Terra alone that might not raise a few eyebrows, but when you throw in the weapon factories into the mix, then Terra needs to be looked at. Who is getting those weapons? Who is benefitting from them? Especially if you're the Davion and Steiner militaries you're gong to be wanted to know what is going on with Terra thanks to their tight relations with the Mariks and the Liaos. WoB has all of those factories but noone can account for all the produced equipment.

You have everyone and their brother knowing that WoB is recruiting scads of mercs. Why? They already have Terra. And once they decided on doing their nation-building thing in the Chaos March, all of the houses should have been looking their way. After all, all of the great houses are no more than a single jump away from many of those worlds. Are you going to seriously ignore those worlds and the WoB after Gibson? Or maybe their covert and overt assitance in places like the Marian Hegemony invasion of the Circinus Federation?

You have Victor, who knows for a fact that Tommy Marik isn't Thomas Marik, and who knows for a fact just how deep WoBs tenticles go into ComStar, and who knows that some of the attacks that started the Flashpoint warfare between the Draconis Combine and the Lyrans and the Federated Suns, never mention to his Lyran and Fed Suns loyalists that they might want to look at WoB a bit closer?

You want to make the argument that the intelligence agencies of the Inner Sphere had to prioritize towards things like the Clans and the neighboring Great House invasion, and I'll accept that. But to say that the Wobbies simply didn't warrant any special attention from intelligence agencies because they hadn't done anything to anyone just isn't reasonable.

As far as comparing the Jihad with the fall of the Soviet Union, there is one great difference: the Soviet Union just died overnight. If you had said that the Soviet Union had been actively planning their collapse and caught the West off guard by dying without any warning signs, then I'd agree you would have a point.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2006 8:04 am 
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Loki
Loki

Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2001 8:00 pm
Posts: 11444
Location: Minnesnowta
Why would somebody want to look at the Wobblies? Why would somebody want to spend resources delving into them?

1) They are nutters
2) They have access to nukes
3) They have access to WarShips
4) They have access to BattleMechs. Lots and lots of really cool freakin' BattleMechs
5) They have cloaking BattleArmor.

Granted, 1 and 2 are the ones that should really catch people's attention, but the rest don't really help.

As for the AMC fighting the Wobblies because peace would be bad for the mercenary trade?

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Right. Whatever. The Dragoons and their allies were fighting the Wobblies because they were nutters and couldn't be trusted to run an interstellar nation. And because they were nutters...

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:50 pm 
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Commanding General
Commanding General

Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2002 8:00 pm
Posts: 1998
Location: The State Of Logic
Quote:
First off, why would the Great Houses keep any special tabs on the Word of Blake before 3067? What would cause them to spent their intel assets,in the middle of a bloody civil war and other conflicts, to bother looking at the slightly nutty phone company?
1. They are ideological fanatics. Fanatics that have access to heavy equipment, armament, naval assets, and more advanced assets.

2. WoB took Terra. They did not take Terra and declare neutrality (i.e. Comstar). Wob simply took it. As Terra remains a major manufacturing resource, cultural center, and the mere fact the Successor Houses have been fighting for centuries to determine who sits on it, the action means they get even more attention.

3. WoB has access and intricate knowledge of HPG systems. They are a threat, thus, to communications. As mentioned, the "phone company" is in a position to eavesdrop, sabotage, or otherwise affect communications. While they don't control all, they control a sizeable proportion. That means they get even more attention.

4. WoB has shown in its campaigns, movements, etc. a distinct operating procedure that the ends justifies the means. Assassinations, tampering with world governments, arms smuggling, technology development, cross-border trade disruption, etc. They also have shown they have an experienced intelligence network of their own which represented a threat to any and all who stood in the way of the WoB. Yet more attention is paid.

5. WoB has dominated, generally speaking, the Free Worlds League. They may not control everything, but they control enough to bring about movement with FWL resources. Controlling a Successor State with its vast resources and armament instantly makes you watched.
Quote:
There are two recent RL comparisons which show that even when everyone *have* their eyes on something, they can easily drop the ball. One is the fall of the Soviet Union. With all the assets of the CIA, MI6, the french, the germans and so on, noone saw it coming. Or if some analyst did, their superiors decided he was smoking something and threw it in a pile.
Not true in light of recent information releases. The CIA recently declassified a 327 page report including 24 seperate NIEs (National Intelligence Estimates) and SNIE (Special National Intelligence Esitmates) which represent clear knowledge of what the situation was in the Soviet Union in addition to the release of 550 more NIEs showing earlier further information. The NIE/SNIEs are issued by the National Intelligence Council that draws on source information in the CIA and others in the intelligence community for preparing estimates and reports on what is happening in given regions. These reports are made available in general only to the senior-levels of government including the President, NSC, Cabinet members, and high level policy makers. The end result of all this was that the Bush administration had a good idea what was happening with the Soviet Union and took a course generally thought to be non-antagonistic given Gorbachev's teetering position (the military-industrial houses had no love for him and were a constant thorn in the side of any sort of deflating to the Soviet revolution). In all respects, the course followed by the administration worked very well given the very sensitive nature of the situation.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 2:48 am 
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Stratego
Stratego

Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2001 8:00 pm
Posts: 10855
Location: Ft. Hood Texas
Let's see, numerous "errors" in transmissions happen, yet ONLY when messages pass through WoB run HPG sites, shippments of parts and weapons get messed with etc...then you have several reports from agents in other parts of the IS and Periphery all point to the WoB being up to something. Yet no one notices and no takes steps to do anything...right.

Maybe TPTB should have taken 30 more mintues and looked into some of the intellegeance agencies and such as well as looking over older canon material like the Intel book, before writing off ALL of the IS Intel groups with the line that no one noticed.

As the AMC thing, that never really made sense to me and given that since the novels stopped being put out, a lot of the background story and led ins to things are lost since we can't see them from the characters view points etc...sourcebooks would help as well covering the area that the AMC is working in PRIOR to all the silly Jihad plot line, but that didn't happen and thus confusion is there as well as folks not liking the ideas and outcomes. Wait we have covered this for what 3 years now? And yet it still comes around...more background work and such needs to be done and ALL of the questions and explanations need to be given about the Jihad and how it works etc...or else folks will keep poking holes into it again and again and again.

But as someone once said, the winning side in BT is one who is currently the PTBs favorite...

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